The Evidence Behind Why Big Transformations Start Small

In the 1950s, a number of researchers began exploring how innovations spread. Why do some ideas catch on while others fizzle out? And why do certain ideas gain quick acceptance in some places but struggle in others? To find out, they studied successful innovations like hybrid corn and tetracycline.

What they found was that innovative ideas tend to come from outside the community, with early adopters being those most connected to the outside world. The first farmers to adopt hybrid corn were also the ones who often traveled to the city, doctors who read medical journals and attended out of town conferences tended to be those who first prescribed tetracycline.

From there, things followed a distinct pattern, often described as an s-curve. While most ignore the idea—and some show downright hostility to it—those early explorers begin to experiment with it and it is their success that determines whether it will spread. That’s why to successfully lead change, you need to identify, nurture and empower those early few.

The Square-Peg Business

Chances are, you work in a square-peg business, because that’s the best way to maximize efficiency and productivity. You work diligently to improve the pegs and to get them to where they need to go better, faster and cheaper. You want things to be predictable, so that you can perform competently and consistently deliver good results.

This was exactly the position of both the Iowa farmers and the doctors. Farmers operate in an environment that is largely unpredictable and out of their control. A season that doesn’t have enough rain —or too much— can ruin a harvest, as can an infestation or any number of nature’s vicissitudes. So, they work diligently to control what they can and are naturally skeptical about introducing a new variable, like some newfangled type of seed corn.

When the FDA first approved tetracycline in 1954, antibiotics were still relatively new (penicillin had only been made available to the public in 1945, nine years before). Most doctors were understandably reluctant to prescribe a new medicine to their patients that they were not familiar with, because of concerns about both efficacy and side-effects.

So even the early adopters proceeded with caution. For the first years, the farmers experimenting with hybrid corn only planted it on 10%-20% of available acreage. The early doctors prescribing tetracycline did so sparingly at first, presumably focusing on the most acute cases, while preferring more conservative treatments for patients with milder ailments.

The status quo, whatever its faults, is what we know and trying something different involves risk which, as sociologist Mark Granovetter has pointed out, we all have varying thresholds for, given the particular context.

The Round-Hole World

Both hybrid corn and tetracycline would go on to make significant impacts. Today, we grow 20% more corn on 25% less acreage due to innovations like hybrid corn. Tetracycline represented a new class of antibiotics that would help doctors more effectively treat infections. Nevertheless, both faced significant resistance initially.

Things that change the world always arrive out of context, for the simple reason that the world hasn’t changed yet. They create a new environment—a round hole that the square pegs of the status quo don’t fit into. That’s why you shouldn’t try to persuade or overpower, but rather find those already enthusiastic. What made the early adopters of hybrid corn and tetracycline different was simply that they were more open to trying something new.

From there, things proceeded just as Granovetter’s threshold model describes. The success of the early adopters motivated others, who were a bit less hesitant, to give it a try, sparking a snowball effect that led to even wider adoption. As the success stories grew, later adopters embraced the innovation more enthusiastically and spread the word to even more people.

It unfolded much like William Whyte observed with the spread of air conditioners in the 1950s. Because the units were mounted in windows, you could watch them cluster within buildings and then jump to neighboring structures, where new clusters would take hold and spread. Change, the evidence shows, spreads through social ties.

Ideas tend to spread and take hold through peer networks. We adopt the changes we see working around us. As I wrote in Cascades, it is small groups, loosely connected, but united by a shared purpose that brings about transformational change. As leaders, it’s our job to empower those small groups, help them connect and inspire them with purpose.

Scaling To Impact And Surviving Victory

Everett Rogers’s book Diffusion of Innovations draws insights from hundreds of studies across diverse fields—from technology and healthcare to agriculture and law. One of his most consistent findings was that the tipping point for change usually lies between 10%-20% participation. At that point, you’ve built up enough momentum to accelerate the pace.

It’s also the point at which the knives come out. In the early stages of transformation, opponents may not feel threatened as long as you’re empowering enthusiasts without pushing change onto others. But once those who oppose change see you gaining traction, they will often lash out, seeking to kill the idea before it gets too far.

You also need to guard against bad behavior among your own supporters. Initial success can lead them to believe that change is inevitable, and in their enthusiasm, they may alienate those who could otherwise be persuaded. Many recent social movements, such as #Occupy and the fight for diversity, equity and inclusion fell into this trap.

We call this failure to survive victory and it happens so often you can almost set your watch by it. The way to avoid it is by focusing on shared values. Unfortunately, when people feel passionate about an idea, they want to focus on how it’s different, because that’s what made them passionate in the first place. Yet that’s not how you bring new people in.

To scale to impact you need to create a sense of safety around change. Just because you’ve had some success doesn’t mean you can seek retribution or to subjugate those that don’t agree with you. Lasting change is always built on common ground.

Adopting A Changemaker Mindset

The most common mistake that leaders make when pursuing change is to assume that once people understand it, they will embrace it. So they approach transformation with a typical project management approach, looking to create a sense of urgency, build awareness, remove obstacles and quickly show progress against a timeline.

Yet we have decades of research and experience, with every type of change imaginable, that shows that’s not how transformation really works. What we know is that change comes from the outside and takes hold among a small group of enthusiasts. They adopt the idea cautiously at first, but their success encourages others to adopt it more aggressively.

As leaders, we can empower this process along, by supporting those early adopters, helping them to succeed and giving them resources they can co-opt to help change spread. To do that, we must shift from a traditional manager mindset—centered on consensus, predictability, and execution—to a changemaker mindset that emphasizes building coalitions, embracing uncertainty, and fostering exploration.

We need to follow the evidence. Change doesn’t have to fail. It follows a distinct pattern that we can leverage to achieve what we want to. By recognizing and embracing this pattern, we can avoid the pitfalls of transformation theater so many leaders fall into and consistently bring about genuine change.

In an era of disruption, the only viable strategy is to adapt and leaders who can inspire change have a distinct competitive advantage. Transformation can’t be mandated or forced, it can only be inspired and empowered.

Greg Satell is Co-Founder of ChangeOS, a transformation & change advisory, an international keynote speaker, host of the Changemaker Mindset podcast, bestselling author of Cascades: How to Create a Movement that Drives Transformational Change and Mapping Innovation, as well as over 50 articles in Harvard Business Review. You can learn more about Greg on his website, GregSatell.com, follow him on Twitter @DigitalTonto, his YouTube Channel and connect on LinkedIn.